A deal in prospect later this week? 14th October 2019

Another mixed, complex and messy set of ideas are currently the centre of attention. Little detail is known as negotiations are being conducted in a ‘tunnel’. Like a train emerging into the light after a long dark ride, a deal is expected to be announced later this week for the European Council meeting on October 17-18.

Currently the chances of a deal being done and accepted by parliament in the next week seem very small. The indications are that there remains a big gap between the two sides. Also if, despite all the questions and doubts, an EU-UK deal is agreed and announced at the European Council, there are big doubts as to whether it will get through parliament.

Are these genuine negotiations or just political theatre, staged by the PM for the upcoming election campaign? My sense at the moment is that the PM does want a deal. He has a greater chance of winning the election with a Brexit deal done (provided a significant concession has been made by the EU and the Irish) than leaving with no deal or staying with another extension. Read more here


Recent pieces

3rd October 2019. Johnson’s Brexit proposal – an unworkable and short term tactic
The PM has announced a mixed mess of ideas. Two Irish borders now! A customs border in Ireland and a regulatory border between Britain and Northern Ireland. It seems nothing more than a short term tactic. It also confirms his hardline strategy.

27th September 2019. Parliament returns to some of the most ugly and dangerous behaviour by a PM in living memory.
Parliament returned after the Supreme Court ruled that prorogation was unlawful. There are still many uncertainties about the coming weeks. The only real certainty is that, deal or no deal, we won’t be able to ‘move on’.

11th September 2019. Relative calm after the PM suffers big defeats in parliament.
In an intense first week of September anti no-deal MPs stood up to the PM – 21 Conservative MPs were expelled from the party.

20th August 2019. A new low – Boris Johnson as PM and his extreme approach to Brexit.
But beyond Johnson’s bombast there are important similarities between his approach and Theresa May’s.